I expect Tua Tagovailoa and Josh Allen to pad their respective cases in the NFL MVP odds discussion and sparks to fly early in Orchard Park.īut just because I anticipate points aplenty doesn't mean that the run game will be abandoned. This success dates back to 2022, when the Dolphins amassed 13.6 first-half points per game (sixth in the NFL), while the Bills averaged 15.3 points in the first half (third). Miami leads all teams in points per first half through three weeks (24) while Buffalo is sixth (16.7), and that includes their lackluster Week 1 effort vs. The Dolphins and Bills have gotten out of the gate well this season in more ways than one. against the abysmal Chicago Bears.Īs for the Saints, they'll be quarterbacked by either a hobbled Derek Carr or Jameis Winston, the man New Orleans was hoping to improve upon in 2023.īoth defenses are Top 10 in points allowed per game, so scoring should be difficult.

He threw for 9.3 yards per attempt in Week 2. Now it's Baker Mayfield under center, and he's thrown for 5.8 yards per attempt in two of his first three games. While that AFC North slog transpires, an NFC South rock fight will occur in New Orleans as the Saints host the Buccaneers.įive of the last six Bucs-Saints tilts have gone Under with an average total of 36 points, and that was with Tom Brady calling the shots in Tampa. Watson could spend plenty of time looking up at the sky after being dropped 12 times through three games (fourth-worst in the NFL), as the Ravens are fifth in sacks this season (11). the Titans on the heels of a wretched body of work with the Browns. Meanwhile, Baltimore's defense looks much improved (10th in yards allowed per game), and I'm not buying Deshaun Watson's miraculous turnaround vs. the Colts last week, and their last few drives were painful to watch. authored a season-low 19 points in an OT loss vs. While it will be nearly impossible for the Browns to avoid regressing after allowing just 163.7 yards per game, I'm not counting on the Ravens to break through in a meaningful way here.

1 in just about every meaningful category through three weeks. Jim Schwartz has worked some magic to make Cleveland's stoppers No. And the Browns' defense has dramatically improved over just one offseason to become a nightmare for opposing teams. Three of the last four Baltimore-Cleveland battles have gone below the number, with the average total coming out to 32.8 points. The Ravens and Browns have played some highly competitive games over the last two years, but none of them could be described as track meets.

Best nfl week 4 bets